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The folly of trying to curb China’s rise

企图遏制中国是愚蠢的



Attempts to curb China’s rise did not begin with Donald Trump, nor are they likely end with his administration as long as the “communist” nation is in a position to challenge US economic, technological and military hegemony. Perhaps because so much at stake for the US, no administration or Congress will allow any nation to acquire that position. It was the Soviet unx at the end of World War II, Japan in the 1980s, and now it is China. Who knows which nation will be targeted in the future?

美国遏制中国的尝试并非起始于特朗普,只要国家能够挑战美国在经济、技术上的霸权,这种遏制也不太可能在特朗普的任期后告终。或许是因为中国对美国来说太过危险,美国的任何政府或国会都不会允许任何国家站到这一位置。二战结束时是苏联,1980年代是日本,现在是中国。谁知道未来哪个国家会又会成为攻击目标?



Furthermore, an increasing number of countries, including staunch US allies such as the UK, are embracing China by participating in its Belt and Road Initiative and defying American pressure not to use Chinese telecom products in their 5G (fifth-generation technology) rollouts.

此外,越来越多的国家,包括美国的坚定盟友,如英国,正在积极参与中国的“一带一路”倡议,反对美国在其5G项目中施加的禁止使用中国电信产品的压力。

On the military front, China displayed an impressive array of advanced conventional and nuclear weapons at its 70th-anniversary parade in October. Though they might not be as lethal or advanced as those in the US arsenal, America and its allies could suffer unthinkable losses of human lives and property should US politicians push the two countries into a war.

在军事战线方面,中国在10月举行的70周年阅兵式上、展示了一系列令人印象深刻的先进核武器与常规武器。尽管这些武器可能没有美国军械库中的武器那般致命或先进,但如果美国政客将两国推入战争,美国及其盟国可能遭受难以想象的生命和财产损失。

And there is no end in sight to Washington’s anti-China policy. Trump has signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act into law, perhaps betting that China will do nothing or might even capitulate to the Hong Kong protesters’ demands. But if the US follows through with the threats outlined in the legislation, the Chinese government will most likely institute tit-for-tat countermeasures, because the Chinese public would not only support it but demand it.

华盛顿的反华政策看不到尽头,特朗普已经签署了《香港人权与皿煮法案》,也许他在赌中国不会采取任何措施、甚至认为中国会向香港抗议者的要求投降。但是,如果美国继续利用立法来威胁中国,中国ZF可能会采取针锋相对的政策,因为中国公众不仅会支持政府这样做、而且会要求这样做。

But there is an irony to the US policies in that they hurt American businesses and the people of Hong Kong more than China. The many US businesses in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) are already hurting their future in doubt because of the prolonged period of violent protests. The US legislation will only embolden the protesters to become more violent, a stance that the mainland would not likely allow for long. Should Beijing intervene, Hong Kong will be on the edge of an abyss, wiping out the future of its youth and destroying US business prospects.

但美国政策的讽刺之处在于,它们损害的只有美国企业和香港人民的利益,而不是中国大陆的利益。由于长期的暴力抗议活动,香港的许多美国企业已经在质疑香港的未来了。美国的立法只会鼓励抗议者变本加厉,而中国大陆可能不会允许这种立场持续太久。如果中国进行干预,香港将处于深渊边缘,这只会抹杀青年的未来,摧毁美国的商业前景。

China, on the other hand, would suffer Western condemnation and possibly sanctions, but as with the Tiananmen Square incident, it will not only recover but might even emerge stronger, simply because the protests and the US legislation in reality have nothing to do with democracy or human rights. What’s more, Western businesses would not likely give up the increasingly lucrative Chinese market.

另一方面,中国会受到西方的谴责,也可能会受到制裁,但与以往的事件一样,中国不仅会复苏,甚至可能变得更强大。仅仅因为这些抗议活动和美国的立法、与皿煮和人权根本毫无关系。此外,西方企业不太可能放弃利润日益丰厚的中国市场。

It could indeed be argued that the US might be shooting itself in the foot, risking its own economy and dragging the world down with it.

事实上,有人可能会认为,美国可能是在搬起石头砸自己的脚,冒着本国经济(下降)的风险,拖累整个世界。

But the bleeding does not stop there. According to a recent Bloomberg report, Chinese companies buy more than 65% of the world’s US$480 billion worth of semiconductor products each year. The largest chip vendors (Qualcomm and others) happen to be in the US, explaining why the Trump administration is issuing licenses to companies selling chips to China. In fact, barring ZTE from buying US chips almost killed these China-reliant companies, prompting the administration to soften its stance.

但美国经济的大出血还不止与此。根据彭博社最近的一份报告,中国企业每年购买全球价值4800亿美元的半导体产品的65%以上,而最大的芯片供应商(高通公司和其他公司)恰好在美国,这解释了特朗普政府为何要给向中国出售芯片的公司发放许可证。事实上,禁止中兴购买美国芯片、几乎把这些依赖中国的公司逼到了绝路,而这也促使美国政府软化了立场。

The fact of the matter is that American companies’ decisions to focus on China have largely been motivated by the huge profits to be made, not because they love the country. No country can produce products as efficiently or buy as much from major US firms as China, bringing enormous economies of scale and expanding America’s economic and employment prospects. In this sense, it could be argued that the “conniving commies” are providing, and not eating, America’s lunch.

事实上,美国公司之所以决定将目光集中在中国,很大程度上是因为他们将获得巨额利润,而不是因为他们热爱中国。没有一个国家能像中国那样高效地生产产品、或从美国大公司购买如此多的产品,为美国带来巨大的经济效益,并扩大美国的经济和就业前景。从这层意义上说,可以说“纵容主义者”是在为美国提供午餐、而非吃掉美国人的午餐

If they lose much or all of their access to the Chinese market, corporates such as Boeing, Dell, Apple, General Motors are others are unlikely to be as profitable as they are today. Before Boeing was hit by the 737 Max safety issue, for example, China accounted for around 25% of the company’s commercial-aircraft business.

如果这些公司失去了进入中国市场的大部分或全部机会,那么波音、戴尔、苹果、通用等公司就不太可能像今天这样盈利。例如,在波音遭遇737 MAX安全问题之前,中国在该公司的商用飞机业务中约占25%的份额。



These are compelling arguments to suggest that China cannot and should not be contained. However, common sense and logic are viewed as liabilities rather than assets because the majority of the US population really believe Communist China is “evil” and responsible for America’s problems. To gain public support, some politicians from both the Democratic and Republican parties try to outdo each other in demonizing China. Furthermore, giving up its global dominance or even having China (or any other country) as an equal could be extremely costly to the US economy.

这些令人信服的论据表明,中国不能、也不应当被遏制。然而,常识和逻辑被美国视为累赘而非资产,大多数美国民众真的认为GZ主义中国是“邪恶的”,这种想法导致了美国的问题。为了获得公众的支持,某些来自民主共和两党的政客、正试图争先恐后地妖魔化中国。此外,放弃其全球主导地位,甚至让中国(或任何其他国家)与其平起平坐,可能对美国经济造成极其高昂的代价。