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US Gross National Debt Jumps by $1.2 Trillion in Fiscal 2019, to $22.7 Trillion, Hits 106.5% of GDP

2019财年,美国国债总额跃升了1.2万亿美元,达到22.7万亿美元,占国内生产总值的106.5%

But what happens if there’s actually a recession?

但是如果真的出现衰退会发生什么呢?

The US gross national debt jumped by $110 billion on the last two business days of Fiscal Year 2019, and by a breath-taking $1.2 trillion during the entire fiscal year, after having already jumped by $1.27 trillion in Fiscal 2018, the Treasury Department reported today. This ballooned the US gross national debt to a vertigo-inducing $22.72 trillion.

今天发布的美国财政部报告显示,在2019财年的最后两个工作日里,美国国债总额跃升了1100亿美元,继2018财年跃升1.27万亿美元之后,整个2019财年的国债总额又增加了1.2万亿美元,叹为观止啊。这使得美国国债总额飙升至令人眩晕的22.72万亿美元。

These beautiful trillions whipping by are a joy to behold: so much action in so little time. The flat spots in the chart below are the results of the debt-ceiling charade in Congress. When the debt ceiling is lifted, the debt spikes back to trend, and nothing changed:

看着这漂亮的数十万亿美元被鞭打也是一种享受啊:在如此短的时间内有如此多的行动。下图中的平点就是国会债务上限猜谜游戏的结果。当债务上限被解除时,债务又会回到增长趋势,没有任何变化:



During Fiscal 2019, the gross national debt increased by 5.6% and now amounts to 106.5% of current-dollar GDP, up from 105.4% at the end of Fiscal 2018.

在2019财年,国债总额增加了5.6%,现在达到了当前美元国内生产总值的106.5%,高于2018财年年底的105.4%。

The thing to remember here is that this isn’t the Great Recession or the Financial Crisis, when over 10 million people lost their jobs and credit froze up and companies went bankrupt and tax revenues plunged while outlays soared to pay for unemployment insurance and the like. This isn’t even the Collapse of Everything, but the longest expansion of the economy in US history.

这里要记住的是,这不是大衰退或金融危机,不然会发生超过1000万人失业、信贷被冻结、公司破产、税收收入骤降,而用于支付失业保险等的支出飙升。这甚至也不是什么都崩溃,而是美国历史上最长的经济扩张。

Over the last four quarters, the US economy as measured by nominal GDP (not adjusted for inflation) grew by 4.0%. Over the same period, the US gross national debt grew by 5.6% (not adjusted for inflation).

在过去的四个季度里,以名义国内生产总值衡量的美国经济(未考虑通胀因素)增长了4.0%。同期,美国国债总额增长了5.6%(未考虑通胀因素)。



But no problem, it’s just some trillions.

但没问题,只是几万亿而已。

The thing is, I get to write these articles once a year, every year, and have been for years, because it’s the same fiasco every year, all over again, only now it’s a little bigger.

问题是,我每年都会写一次这类的文章,而且已经写了很多年了,因为每年都是同样的惨败,一遍又一遍,只是现在债务规模真的有点大了。

From Fiscal 2012, after the Great Recession was declared over and done with, through Fiscal 2016, the gross national debt increased on average by $947 billion per year. In Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019, the gross national debt increased on average by $1.23 trillion per year.

从2012财年开始,在宣告大衰退结束后,到2016财年,国债总额平均每年增加9470亿美元。在2018财年和2019财年,国债总额平均每年增加1.23万亿美元。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps saying that the US is on an “unsustainable fiscal path,” which is fine and dandy, but every time he says this, he sounds like a fossil that is completely out of touch with reality in Congress where all this got passed. “Sustain” for these folks in Congress means sustaining their campaign funds and sustaining them through the next election.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔一直在说,美国正走在“不可持续的财政道路”上,这条路很好,也很漂亮,但每次他这么说,听起来就像一块化石一样,完全脱离了现实,而国会又每次都使之获得通过。对于国会中的那些人来说,“支持”就意味着支持他们的竞选资金,并在下次选举中继续支持他们。